I am hoping that Putin is approaching
a "Goodfellas" moment with his oligarchs. Putin's Ukrainian
adventures have brought unwanted heat from the West on the enterprises of
kleptocratic Russia. All of Russia's big companies have a lot of short term
debt they will find almost impossible to refinance due to sanctions and falling
oil and natural gas prices. If the oligarch's companies can't refinance, they
will default on the loans and won't be able to do business in the West because
any assets they have there or send there will be attached to pay what they owe.
It's even possible that the oligarchs' personal assets could be seized to pay
their companies' debts as part of future sanctions. In 1999, the corruption
charges against the government threatened the oligarchs and Putin's Chechen War
helped them avoid trouble. This time, the sanctions and falling oil and natural
gas prices threaten the oligarchs, and the Ukraine War made things worse.
Analyzing it like a crime family would, the oligarchs may decide it's time for
Putin to end up floating in the Volga river.