Every Liberal in creation
is saying the choice is between Obama's bad deal and immediate war with Iran.
I think that's a false choice. It's possible that sanctions combined with the falling price
of oil may seriously weaken the regime. Manufacturing and running centrifuges
is expensive. The Iranians also have a huge and expensive security structure.
They are sponsoring Shi'ite militias or armies in wars in Syria, Yemen and
Iraq. They have expensive internal subsidies for food and gasoline to keep the populace
under control. All of this has to be paid for by oil revenues. Estimates vary,
but the Mad Mullahs need somewhere between $100 to $130 a barrel of oil to pay
for all of this. Right now the price is about $55 a barrel. Iran has lots of
natural gas reserves, but no export terminals and limited export pipelines.
They will not be able to borrow money for export facilities if they are under
sanctions. The US could put even more pressure on them by legalizing the export
of crude oil and natural gas.
While
I'm sure that the Mullahs won't cut the centrifuges, if they cut sponsoring
wars and terrorism, their allies would be defeated. Defeats in foreign
adventures can be deadly to the prestige authoritarian governments need for
survival. If they cut in domestic subsidies they could be overthrown in the
resulting unrest. If they cut domestic security they could lose control of
dissidents and be overthrown. Add to the mix that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali
Hosseini Khamenei, has terminal cancer and is expected to die within 2 years.
The combination of financial stress and a succession struggle could topple the
whole regime. It's worth at shot. The current agreement guarantees an Iranian
nuclear weapon within 10 years or less. That's a lock on a nuclear war in 10 years or less.
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