US Strategy So Complex, It's Incoherent

The US Middle East strategy is so complex, it's incoherent. Our Dear Leader is making it up as he goes along. Barry the Brilliant's tilt towards Iran was meant to win us an arms control treaty. Nothing else mattered. And we are so close! Just a few more days and we can wrap it all up! Sure. In the meantime we have a mess where the US provided close air support for the Iranian Quds Force militias in Iraq, while we provide intelligence to the Saudis so they can attack an Iranian Quds Force militia in Yemen.

For those of you not familiar with the Quds Force, it's the part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard responsible for sponsoring terrorism and paramilitary organizations in foreign countries. The Quds Force has managed to combine the less attractive aspects of the German SS and the Russian KGB with numerous terrorist bombings. The Shi'ite militias that just took Tikrit, Iraq, after helpful US air strikes are run by Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Quds Force. He had his picture taken in several places all over Iraq, including near Tikrit. He was touring Iraq like he owned the place, because he does. The Quds Force militias are the friendly folks who planted the deadliest roadside bombs that killed and maimed hundreds of Americans during the Iraq War. If you think supporting Quds Force militias is a popular thing to do in US military circles then you will believe almost anything the Smartest President Ever says.

In the meantime, we are helping our friends the Saudis and the Egyptians with their Yemen problems. The Yemen problems are from Houthi militia trained and supplied by the Quds Force. In military terms, sanitized for a family publication, this is a cluster foul up. To believe the Middle East situation was the result of some grand master plan, a military analyst would need a ton of Maui Wowie consumed in the company of your buddy Jose Cuervo.

The only good thing to come out of it is that the Saudis and Israelis are so scared of the Iranians that they are negotiating quietly on military cooperation with each other. That fact alone says a lot about how bad things are.

Continued Sanctions Would Be Much Better Than Obama's Bad Deal

Every Liberal in creation is saying the choice is between Obama's bad deal and immediate war with Iran.  I think that's a false choice.  It's possible that sanctions combined with the falling price of oil may seriously weaken the regime. Manufacturing and running centrifuges is expensive. The Iranians also have a huge and expensive security structure. They are sponsoring Shi'ite militias or armies in wars in Syria, Yemen and Iraq. They have expensive internal subsidies for food and gasoline to keep the populace under control. All of this has to be paid for by oil revenues. Estimates vary, but the Mad Mullahs need somewhere between $100 to $130 a barrel of oil to pay for all of this. Right now the price is about $55 a barrel. Iran has lots of natural gas reserves, but no export terminals and limited export pipelines. They will not be able to borrow money for export facilities if they are under sanctions. The US could put even more pressure on them by legalizing the export of crude oil and natural gas.

While I'm sure that the Mullahs won't cut the centrifuges, if they cut sponsoring wars and terrorism, their allies would be defeated. Defeats in foreign adventures can be deadly to the prestige authoritarian governments need for survival. If they cut in domestic subsidies they could be overthrown in the resulting unrest. If they cut domestic security they could lose control of dissidents and be overthrown. Add to the mix that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Hosseini Khamenei, has terminal cancer and is expected to die within 2 years. The combination of financial stress and a succession struggle could topple the whole regime. It's worth at shot. The current agreement guarantees an Iranian nuclear weapon within 10 years or less.  That's a lock on a nuclear war in 10 years or less.

Why There Was Jewish Support For Civil Rights in 1964

It wasn't just the holocaust that made Jews sympathetic to civil rights protest. Even in the US, Jews were subject to some of the same discrimination as blacks. There were restrictive deeds which prevented Jews from owning property in certain areas. There were quotas on college admissions of Jews because admitting people based on objective criteria lead to too many Jews and not enough of the "right people" being admitted.

My grandfather was Jewish. My grandmother was a Methodist minister's daughter. When they married in 1929, both of their families thought they were nuts. However, one of the tricks they used to beat restrictive deeds was funny. They lived wherever they wanted to live. If the deed or lease said no Jews, my grandmother bought the property or signed the lease by herself. She wasn't Jewish. Restrictive deeds were outlawed by the Civil Rights Act of 1964

The Irony of Jewish Mistrust for Evangelicals

The big question last week was why the Jewish vote was still going to Democrats given that the current administration is so hostile towards Israel.  One answer was that the GOP alliance with Evangelical Christians made Jews nervous.

It's ironic that the GOP alliance with Christian Conservatives feels threatening to Jews. The alliance was born out of the government attempts to control church sponsored schools and home schooling. The Evangelical Christians became politically involved because state and local governments were harassing them. They wanted religious freedom to go their own way. The Jewish view of this is that the Evangelicals want to take over the public schools and force Christian prayers into the classrooms. While that may have been true prior to 1964, it certainly has not been their goal since 1976, and definitely is not today. My insight on this comes from the fact that while I'm a Protestant, my grandfather was Jewish and my wife is Jewish. I have talked to both sides and there's a big misunderstanding here. 

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/416057/can-jewish-americans-support-both-democrats-and-israel-jonah-goldberg